Model Predictions
| Model | Michigan State Spartans | Northwestern Wildcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 80.7% | 19.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 68.7% | 31.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 83.2% | 16.8% | -8.8 | ✗ (15.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 59.8% | 40.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 91.4% | 8.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 91.6% | 8.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 68.7% | 31.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Northwestern Wildcats +7 (81-74). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draymond Green * | 39 | 5-8 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 23 | - |
| Keith Appling * | 36 | 4-13 | 0-5 | 9-13 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 9 | - |
| Brandon Wood * | 23 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Branden Dawson * | 17 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Adreian Payne * | 11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Travis Trice | 23 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Austin Thornton | 21 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Derrick Nix | 16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Brandan Kearney | 11 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Alex Gauna | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Russell Byrd | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Northwestern Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Shurna * | 40 | 5-14 | 2-6 | 10-11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 21 | - |
| Dave Sobolewski * | 40 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 4-6 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Davide Curletti * | 36 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 6-10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 23 | - |
| Drew Crawford * | 29 | 8-14 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 9 | - |
| Reggie Hearn * | 29 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Alex Marcotullio | 15 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Nick Fruendt | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Luka Mirkovic | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter