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2012-01-14

Model Predictions

Model Michigan State Spartans Northwestern Wildcats Spread Result
Elo 90.5% 9.5% -
Bradley-Terry 61.7% 38.3% -
Margin 76.5% 23.5% -6.5 (13.5 off)
Pythagorean 73.5% 26.5% -
Efficiency 96.1% 3.9% -
Adjusted Efficiency 93.9% 6.1% -
Log Adjusted 94.1% 5.9% -

Actual: Northwestern Wildcats +7 (81-74). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Michigan State Spartans

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
D. Green * 39 5-8 4-5 0-1 14 4 1 1 3 14 23 -
K. Appling * 36 4-13 0-5 9-13 3 3 2 0 3 17 9 -
B. Wood * 23 3-7 2-4 1-2 1 5 0 0 1 9 7 -
B. Dawson * 17 3-3 0-0 3-4 6 0 1 1 3 9 11 -
A. Payne * 11 1-3 0-0 3-6 1 0 0 0 0 5 3 -
T. Trice II 23 3-6 1-2 0-0 3 4 2 0 1 7 9 -
A. Thornton 21 1-3 1-1 0-0 2 2 0 0 0 3 4 -
D. Nix 16 2-4 0-0 1-1 4 1 0 1 2 5 5 -
B. Kearney 11 1-2 1-1 0-0 0 0 0 1 0 3 2 -
A. Gauna 2 1-3 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 0 0 2 1 -
R. Byrd 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

Northwestern Wildcats

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
J. Shurna * 40 5-14 2-6 10-11 5 5 1 2 0 22 21 -
D. Sobolewski * 40 1-6 0-3 4-6 3 7 1 0 1 6 10 -
D. Curletti * 36 5-7 1-1 6-10 6 4 2 1 0 17 23 -
D. Crawford * 29 8-14 3-5 1-2 1 1 1 1 1 20 9 -
R. Hearn * 29 5-6 0-0 0-0 5 2 1 0 3 10 9 -
A. Marcotullio 15 2-4 2-2 0-0 1 0 1 0 0 6 4 -
N. Fruendt 7 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 -
L. Mirkovic 4 0-1 0-0 0-0 3 0 0 0 1 0 1 -

* = starter