Model Predictions
| Model | Ball State Cardinals | Morehead State Eagles | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.5% | 73.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.0% | 67.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 42.8% | 57.2% | +1.6 | ✓ (6.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 55.5% | 44.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.0% | 46.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.9% | 46.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.4% | 53.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Morehead State Eagles +8 (62-54). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Ball State Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Jones * | 35 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Randy Davis * | 32 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Matt Kamieniecki * | 21 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Chris Bond * | 20 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -1 | - |
| Tyler Koch * | 18 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -2 | - |
| Jauwan Scaife | 26 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Tyrae Robinson | 22 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 5-6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Jesse Berry | 17 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Aaron Adeoye | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | - |
Morehead State Eagles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Proffitt * | 32 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 5-5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 14 | - |
| Marsell Holden * | 25 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Terrance Hill * | 25 | 3-11 | 0-6 | 6-6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 4 | - |
| Kahlil Owens * | 22 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | - |
| Drew Kelly * | 17 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Lamont Austin | 27 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | - |
| Milton Chavis | 22 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Angelo Warner | 12 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | - |
| Jordan Percell | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Deandre Mathieu | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Will Bailey | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | - |
* = starter