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2011-12-17

Model Predictions

Model UNLV Rebels Illinois Fighting Illini Spread Result
Elo 3.5% 96.5% -
Bradley-Terry 28.2% 71.8% -
Margin 16.1% 83.9% +9.1 (25.1 off)
Pythagorean 65.4% 34.6% -
Efficiency 88.0% 12.0% -
Adjusted Efficiency 75.4% 24.6% -
Log Adjusted 75.8% 24.2% -

Actual: Illinois Fighting Illini -16 (48-64). Predictions use season-end ratings.

UNLV Rebels

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
O. Bellfield * 33 1-6 0-2 4-4 6 6 1 2 5 6 10 -
M. Moser * 32 6-11 1-4 4-5 11 1 2 0 6 17 14 -
C. Stanback * 25 0-4 0-1 2-2 3 1 0 0 2 2 0 -
A. Marshall * 23 1-5 1-2 2-3 4 3 1 2 3 5 7 -
B. Massamba * 9 3-3 0-0 2-3 2 0 0 0 0 8 7 -
J. Hawkins 31 2-7 0-1 0-0 1 0 1 1 0 4 0 -
Q. Thomas 19 5-6 0-0 3-3 7 0 2 2 1 13 17 -
K. Wallace 14 1-3 1-1 0-0 1 0 1 1 0 3 3 -
C. Lopez-Sosa 13 3-5 0-0 0-0 4 0 2 1 0 6 8 -
K. Mashour 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

Illinois Fighting Illini

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
S. Maniscalco * 35 1-10 1-7 3-4 3 2 0 0 1 6 0 -
D.J. Richardson * 33 6-17 5-8 2-2 8 2 0 0 2 19 10 -
M. Leonard * 33 3-8 0-0 1-6 6 3 0 0 2 7 6 -
T. Griffey * 27 3-5 0-1 0-0 4 1 0 0 1 6 5 -
B. Paul * 25 2-12 1-6 2-4 4 1 5 1 3 7 3 -
C. Head 15 1-6 0-2 0-0 1 0 2 0 1 2 -2 -
T. Abrams 10 0-2 0-1 0-0 1 1 0 0 1 0 -1 -
J. Bertrand 7 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 1 0 0 1 0 2 -
N. Egwu 7 0-2 0-0 0-0 1 1 0 0 1 0 -1 -
M. Shaw 6 0-1 0-0 1-2 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 -
M. Henry 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 -

* = starter