Model Predictions
| Model | UNC Wilmington Seahawks | Dayton Flyers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 10.6% | 89.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 18.5% | 81.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 5.8% | 94.2% | +15.3 | ✓ (9.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 26.7% | 73.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.7% | 98.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.6% | 98.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 21.3% | 78.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dayton Flyers +25 (74-49). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Rendleman * | 31 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 15 | - |
| Adam Smith * | 26 | 4-13 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -3 | - |
| Craig Ponder * | 25 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Nate Anderson * | 13 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Donte Morales * | 12 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Tanner Milson | 18 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Cedrick Williams | 16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| K.K. Simmons | 14 | 2-9 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -7 | - |
| Freddie Jackson | 13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Trevor Deloach | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Matt Wilson | 11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Dylan Sherwood | 7 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Shane Reybold | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Dillard * | 29 | 8-14 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 9 | - |
| Chris Johnson * | 27 | 6-9 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 15 | - |
| Josh Benson * | 23 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-6 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | - |
| Paul Williams * | 22 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | - |
| Matt Kavanaugh * | 19 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Josh Parker | 19 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Luke Fabrizius | 18 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Devin Oliver | 17 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | - |
| Alex Gavrilovic | 13 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Ralph Hill | 7 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Brian Vonderhaar | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Mitch Asmus | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter