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2011-11-15

Model Predictions

Model Duke Blue Devils Michigan State Spartans Spread Result
Elo 35.9% 64.1% -
Bradley-Terry 56.7% 43.3% -
Margin 47.6% 52.4% +0.5 (5.5 off)
Pythagorean 43.3% 56.7% -
Efficiency 38.8% 61.2% -
Adjusted Efficiency 17.6% 82.4% -
Log Adjusted 17.1% 82.9% -

Actual: Michigan State Spartans -5 (69-74). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Duke Blue Devils

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
A. Dawkins * 38 0-0 0-0 0-0 3 0 4 0 0 26 33 -
S. Curry * 38 0-0 0-0 0-0 7 4 4 1 3 20 33 -
M. Plumlee * 32 0-0 0-0 0-0 5 1 0 3 2 7 14 -
A. Rivers * 23 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 1 1 0 2 5 6 -
M. Plumlee * 14 0-0 0-0 0-0 4 0 0 0 2 1 3 -
R. Kelly 30 0-0 0-0 0-0 4 1 1 1 2 14 19 -
T. Thornton 18 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 1 2 0 3 1 3 -
J. Hairston 5 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 -
Q. Cook 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

Michigan State Spartans

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
D. Green * 39 0-0 0-0 0-0 7 2 4 1 5 10 19 -
B. Dawson * 27 0-0 0-0 0-0 3 3 1 1 3 9 14 -
A. Payne * 26 0-0 0-0 0-0 12 0 1 2 2 2 15 -
K. Appling * 26 0-0 0-0 0-0 4 0 0 0 1 22 25 -
B. Wood * 26 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 2 0 0 2 15 17 -
T. Trice II 20 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 4 7 3 -
A. Thornton 16 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
D. Nix 12 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 1 1 0 2 2 3 -
R. Byrd 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 -
A. Gauna 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
B. Kearney 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 -

* = starter