Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Connecticut Sun | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.5% | 69.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.1% | 48.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.2% | 48.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Connecticut Sun +3 (95-92). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penny Taylor * | 36 | 9-18 | 4-10 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 13 | - |
| Candice Dupree * | 32 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 17 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 31 | 10-22 | 4-9 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 6 | - |
| Temeka Johnson * | 25 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | - |
| Nakia Sanford * | 25 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 18 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner | 19 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Ketia Swanier | 11 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Alexis Gray-Lawson | 7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Marie Ferdinand-Harris | 6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Krystal Thomas | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Connecticut Sun
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renee Montgomery * | 34 | 5-17 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Tina Charles * | 33 | 8-20 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 7 | - |
| Asjha Jones * | 30 | 7-15 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 15 | - |
| Kalana Greene * | 28 | 6-9 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Danielle McCray * | 16 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Kara Lawson | 25 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 6-7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 16 | - |
| Kelsey Griffin | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Tan White | 11 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Jessica Moore | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Allison Hightower | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter