Model Predictions
| Model | Las Vegas Aces | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 31.8% | 68.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.6% | 56.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.7% | 62.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.6% | 57.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.7% | 62.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +6 (87-81). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Las Vegas Aces
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Young-Malcolm * | 35 | 5-16 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 2 | - |
| Becky Hammon * | 35 | 8-16 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 24 | - |
| Ruth Riley * | 29 | 6-12 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Scholanda Dorrell * | 28 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Tully Bevilaqua * | 14 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Danielle Robinson | 23 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Jia Perkins | 15 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -2 | - |
| Jayne Appel Marinelli | 7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Porsha Phillips | 6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Roneeka Hodges | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penny Taylor * | 34 | 7-14 | 1-3 | 13-13 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 21 | - |
| Candice Dupree * | 30 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 20 | - |
| Temeka Johnson * | 24 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Marie Ferdinand-Harris * | 20 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Nakia Sanford * | 19 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner | 30 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 20 | - |
| Alexis Gray-Lawson | 19 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Ketia Swanier | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Sidney Spencer | 5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter