Model Predictions
| Model | Minnesota Lynx | Connecticut Sun | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.2% | 61.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 56.2% | 43.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.1% | 33.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.2% | 33.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Connecticut Sun +29 (108-79). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Minnesota Lynx
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seimone Augustus * | 28 | 5-14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | - |
| Lindsay Whalen * | 27 | 7-11 | 1-1 | 5-5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 14 | - |
| Rebekkah Brunson * | 22 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Maya Moore * | 20 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Taj McWilliams-Franklin * | 19 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Monica Wright | 20 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Candice Wiggins | 16 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Amber Harris | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Charde Houston | 14 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 2 | - |
| Jessica Adair | 7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Alexis Hornbuckle | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
Connecticut Sun
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tina Charles * | 29 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 23 | - |
| Asjha Jones * | 26 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Renee Montgomery * | 25 | 6-14 | 1-3 | 4-7 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 12 | - |
| Kalana Greene * | 24 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Danielle McCray * | 14 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Tan White | 20 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Kara Lawson | 20 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 15 | - |
| Kelsey Griffin | 16 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 8-9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 17 | - |
| Allison Hightower | 10 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Jessica Moore | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Jessica Breland | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter