Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Dream | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 64.5% | 35.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 35.6% | 64.4% | +3.3 | ✓ (10.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.7% | 52.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.5% | 47.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +14 (109-95). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Atlanta Dream
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Castro | 30 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | - |
| C. Miller | 29 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | - |
| E. de Souza | 27 | 9-16 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 9 | - |
| A. Bales | 25 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 | - |
| Angel McCoughtry | 23 | 6-16 | 1-3 | 12-15 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 16 | - |
| L. Harding | 23 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| A. Herrington | 15 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| S. Lyttle | 15 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | - |
| C. Paris | 9 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| S. Irvin | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeWanna Bonner | 31 | 7-13 | 2-5 | 9-9 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 28 | - |
| Candice Dupree | 30 | 9-15 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 12 | - |
| Diana Taurasi | 29 | 7-13 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | - |
| P. Taylor | 25 | 6-13 | 2-5 | 5-6 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 16 | - |
| T. Johnson | 24 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| N. Sanford | 20 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | - |
| M. Ferdinand-Harris | 16 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | - |
| K. Swanier | 16 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | - |
| S. Spencer | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter