Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Minnesota Lynx | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.2% | 70.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.5% | 59.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 37.9% | 62.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.9% | 66.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Minnesota Lynx +17 (90-73). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candice Dupree * | 34 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Penny Taylor * | 33 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 6-7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 26 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 8-9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 6 | - |
| Temeka Johnson * | 22 | 4-10 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 11 | - |
| Nakia Sanford * | 20 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner | 22 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Ketia Swanier | 17 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Marie Ferdinand-Harris | 13 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Olayinka Sanni | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Alexis Gray-Lawson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Minnesota Lynx
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maya Moore * | 34 | 7-11 | 5-7 | 3-6 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 21 | - |
| Taj McWilliams-Franklin * | 32 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 | - |
| Seimone Augustus * | 30 | 7-13 | 0-1 | 7-10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 14 | - |
| Lindsay Whalen * | 29 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Rebekkah Brunson * | 15 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Candice Wiggins | 18 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Charde Houston | 16 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Jessica Adair | 15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Alexis Hornbuckle | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Amber Harris | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter