Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 73.6% | 26.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 58.0% | 42.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 47.8% | 52.2% | +0.5 | ✗ (17.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.0% | 49.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 85.4% | 14.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.5% | 30.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 69.8% | 30.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels -17 (58-75). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Singler * | 39 | 5-14 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 2 | - |
| Nolan Smith * | 39 | 6-18 | 1-3 | 7-7 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 15 | - |
| M. Plumlee * | 33 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Seth Curry * | 27 | 4-6 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | - |
| M. Plumlee * | 19 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Ryan Kelly | 28 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Andre Dawkins | 13 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Josh Hairston | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Tyler Thornton | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Barnes * | 37 | 6-15 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 3 | - |
| John Henson * | 33 | 4-15 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 16 | - |
| Tyler Zeller * | 32 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Kendall Marshall * | 32 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Dexter Strickland * | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Leslie McDonald | 24 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Justin Knox | 14 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Justin Watts | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter