Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Fever | Connecticut Sun | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.1% | 67.9% | +4.1 | ✓ (0.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.3% | 52.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.6% | 57.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Connecticut Sun +5 (76-71). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana Fever
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Catchings | 34 | 6-11 | 1-3 | 5-7 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 22 | - |
| K. Douglas | 31 | 5-11 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | - |
| J. Davenport | 30 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | -2 | - |
| E. Phillips | 27 | 3-10 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| T. Smith | 17 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | - |
| S. Ely-Gash | 15 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | - |
| S. Zellous | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| S. Bobbitt | 12 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | - |
| J. Pohlen-Mavunga | 11 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | - |
| T. Sutton-Brown | 10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
Connecticut Sun
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tina Charles | 35 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 20 | - |
| K. Greene | 33 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | - |
| A. Jones | 32 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | - |
| D. McCray | 26 | 7-10 | 6-8 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 13 | - |
| R. Montgomery | 26 | 2-10 | 0-2 | 6-8 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | - |
| K. Lawson | 19 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | - |
| T. White | 13 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| K. Griffin | 10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| J. Moore | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter