Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Dallas Wings | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 68.4% | 31.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 83.5% | 16.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 71.8% | 28.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 78.6% | 21.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 83.5% | 16.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 83.6% | 16.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 73.2% | 26.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Wings -8 (78-86). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penny Taylor * | 28 | 7-11 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 18 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 25 | 5-13 | 1-6 | 6-7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 8 | - |
| Temeka Johnson * | 24 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Candice Dupree * | 22 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Kara Braxton * | 14 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner | 28 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 17 | - |
| Marie Ferdinand-Harris | 20 | 2-10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -3 | - |
| Alexis Gray-Lawson | 17 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Nakia Sanford | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Olayinka Sanni | 8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | - |
Dallas Wings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Pedersen * | 34 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 5-6 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Tiffany Jackson * | 32 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Doneeka Lewis * | 29 | 3-13 | 1-9 | 0-0 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Amber Holt * | 24 | 1-9 | 0-4 | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | - |
| Sheryl Swoopes * | 22 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Liz Cambage | 16 | 6-12 | 0-1 | 7-8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 14 | - |
| Jennifer Lacy | 16 | 4-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -2 | - |
| Andrea Riley | 16 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Marion Jones | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter