Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 73.6% | 26.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 58.0% | 42.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 47.8% | 52.2% | +0.5 | ✓ (13.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.0% | 49.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 85.4% | 14.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.5% | 30.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 69.8% | 30.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +14 (81-67). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Smith * | 40 | 9-19 | 0-4 | 12-13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 12 | - |
| Kyle Singler * | 40 | 3-14 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | - |
| Seth Curry * | 37 | 6-13 | 6-11 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 10 | - |
| Ryan Kelly * | 21 | 1-7 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | - |
| M. Plumlee * | 18 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - |
| M. Plumlee | 29 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 14 | - |
| Andre Dawkins | 12 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Tyler Thornton | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Marshall * | 36 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 4-5 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 18 | - |
| Justin Knox * | 15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Daniel Bolick * | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Van Hatchell * | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Tyler Zeller | 31 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 6 | - |
| Dexter Strickland | 31 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Harrison Barnes | 31 | 7-17 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 9 | - |
| John Henson | 27 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Leslie McDonald | 15 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Justin Watts | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| D.J. Johnston | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter