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Duke Blue Devils 67
@
North Carolina Tar Heels 81
2011-03-05

Model Predictions

Model Duke Blue Devils North Carolina Tar Heels Spread Result
Elo 73.6% 26.4% - ✗
Bradley-Terry 58.0% 42.0% - ✗
Margin 47.8% 52.2% +0.5 ✓ (13.5 off)
Pythagorean 51.0% 49.0% - ✗
Efficiency 85.4% 14.6% - ✗
Adjusted Efficiency 69.5% 30.5% - ✗
Log Adjusted 69.8% 30.2% - ✗

Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +14 (81-67). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Duke Blue Devils

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
N. Smith * 40 9-19 0-4 12-13 2 3 1 0 5 30 12 -
K. Singler * 40 3-14 0-5 2-2 6 1 0 0 1 8 0 -
S. Curry * 37 6-13 6-11 2-2 2 1 0 0 0 20 10 -
R. Kelly * 21 1-7 0-6 0-0 2 0 1 1 1 2 -2 -
M. Plumlee * 18 0-4 0-0 0-0 9 2 2 1 0 0 10 -
M. Plumlee 29 3-4 0-0 1-2 11 2 0 0 2 7 14 -
A. Dawkins 12 0-1 0-1 0-3 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -
T. Thornton 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

North Carolina Tar Heels

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
K. Marshall * 36 5-8 1-2 4-5 2 11 0 0 2 15 18 -
J. Knox * 15 2-4 0-0 1-4 4 0 0 0 1 5 4 -
D. Bolick * 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
V. Hatchell * 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
T. Zeller 31 7-11 0-0 0-3 5 0 0 0 2 14 6 -
D. Strickland 31 4-8 0-0 0-1 3 4 0 0 2 8 5 -
H. Barnes 31 7-17 2-6 2-2 5 2 2 0 1 18 9 -
J. Henson 27 4-10 0-0 2-4 12 0 1 1 2 10 12 -
L. McDonald 15 3-3 1-1 2-2 5 1 0 0 0 9 12 -
J. Watts 8 1-2 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 -
D.J. Johnston 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 -

* = starter