Model Predictions
| Model | Sacramento State Hornets | Northern Colorado Bears | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 4.1% | 95.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 12.3% | 87.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 16.5% | 83.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 20.6% | 79.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 3.4% | 96.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 3.3% | 96.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 17.4% | 82.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Northern Colorado Bears +30 (84-54). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Sacramento State Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walter Jackson * | 35 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 23 | -4.0 |
| Jackson Carbajal * | 31 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 18 | -14.2 |
| Sultan Toles-Bey * | 26 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 2 | -22.6 |
| Alpha N'Diaye * | 24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 24 | -24.5 |
| John Dickson * | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | -6.1 |
| Duro Bjegovic | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | -15.7 |
| Heath Hoffman | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -8.0 |
| Kendell Groom | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2.1 |
| Josh McCarver | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | +6.5 |
Northern Colorado Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Beitzel * | 31 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 37 | +13.1 |
| Elliott Lloyd * | 30 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 20 | +21.2 |
| Chris Kaba * | 24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 | +11.5 |
| Neal Kingman * | 23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 10 | +19.1 |
| Taylor Montgomery * | 23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | +11.3 |
| Paul Garnica | 17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4.2 |
| Emmanuel Addo | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | +3.4 |
| Mike Proctor | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 16 | +1.0 |
| Tate Unruh | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 14 | +6.4 |
| Xzaivier James | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.8 |
| Kevin Hanes | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -2.8 |
| Mike Bedford | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2.8 |
| Dave Arnold | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.9 |
* = starter