Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Florida State Seminoles | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 60.0% | 40.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 55.1% | 44.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 74.1% | 25.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 74.4% | 25.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 54.6% | 45.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Florida State Seminoles -2 (70-72). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Henson * | 35 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 23 | -10.5 |
| Kendall Marshall * | 34 | 3-10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | -1.0 |
| Harrison Barnes * | 34 | 6-10 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 12 | -6.9 |
| Dexter Strickland * | 29 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +0.2 |
| Tyler Zeller * | 27 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 5 | -4.0 |
| Leslie McDonald | 17 | 3-7 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | -5.8 |
| Justin Knox | 15 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2.3 |
| Justin Watts | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | -0.4 |
Florida State Seminoles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Snaer * | 33 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 5 | +2.4 |
| Derwin Kitchen * | 32 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6.2 |
| Deividas Dulkys * | 26 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +16.7 |
| Bernard James * | 25 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 11 | +3.0 |
| Okaro White * | 21 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | +13.6 |
| Ian Miller | 20 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | +1.3 |
| Xavier Gibson | 14 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -3.7 |
| Terrance Shannon | 11 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -0.1 |
| Jon Kreft | 10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +4.4 |
| Luke Loucks | 8 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | +4.2 |
* = starter