Model Predictions
| Model | Youngstown State Penguins | Valparaiso Beacons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 6.2% | 93.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 16.4% | 83.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 21.6% | 78.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 28.9% | 71.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 9.5% | 90.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 9.5% | 90.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 21.6% | 78.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Valparaiso Beacons +9 (80-71). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Youngstown State Penguins
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Perry * | 33 | 6-15 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 11 | +9.3 |
| Damian Eargle * | 33 | 9-18 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 17 | +6.9 |
| Blake Allen * | 33 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | +11.6 |
| Ashen Ward * | 32 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +7.8 |
| Vytas Sulskis * | 31 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 10 | - |
| DuShawn Brooks | 19 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | +7.6 |
| Tre Brewer | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -1 | -4.0 |
| Dan Boudler | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.4 |
Valparaiso Beacons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Wood * | 31 | 7-15 | 0-2 | 6-8 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 23 | -10.3 |
| Ryan Broekhoff * | 28 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 5-5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 | +2.2 |
| Howard Little * | 27 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 9 | -3.8 |
| Cory Johnson * | 21 | 6-14 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 7 | -9.2 |
| Erik Buggs * | 20 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -12.1 |
| Matt Kenney | 23 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -9.8 |
| Jay Harris | 20 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +2.7 |
| Kevin Van Wijk | 19 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | +0.1 |
| Michael Rogers | 11 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -6.3 |
* = starter