Model Predictions
| Model | NC State Wolfpack | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.2% | 61.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 58.5% | 41.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 55.0% | 45.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 64.4% | 35.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 64.4% | 35.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers +11 (69-58). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Brown * | 35 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 9 | -15.7 |
| Scott Wood * | 33 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 7 | -21.0 |
| C.J. Leslie * | 19 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | -27.7 |
| Tracy Smith * | 18 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 5 | -21.0 |
| Ryan Harrow * | 15 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -19.3 |
| Javier Gonzalez | 25 | 6-10 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 9 | +8.9 |
| Jordan Vandenberg | 22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | +9.8 |
| Richard Howell | 20 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | +16.0 |
| C.J. Williams | 13 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +16.0 |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sherrill * | 37 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 15 | +7.7 |
| Joe Harris * | 36 | 4-9 | 4-7 | 7-7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 20 | +17.8 |
| Mustapha Farrakhan * | 34 | 5-12 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +20.8 |
| Sammy Zeglinski * | 34 | 3-11 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +23.5 |
| Assane Sene * | 30 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 9 | +26.5 |
| Jontel Evans | 13 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | -14.0 |
| Akil Mitchell | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8.5 |
| KT Harrell | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -7.7 |
* = starter