Model Predictions
| Model | Villanova Wildcats | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.5% | 63.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.1% | 58.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 55.2% | 44.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.3% | 57.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Notre Dame Fighting Irish +21 (93-72). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Villanova Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Fisher * | 35 | 8-17 | 3-8 | 3-4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 5 | -8.7 |
| Maalik Wayns * | 35 | 4-11 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 11 | -8.8 |
| Corey Stokes * | 32 | 3-8 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | -11.1 |
| Antonio Pena * | 27 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | -12.0 |
| Mouphtaou Yarou * | 17 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -8.5 |
| Dominic Cheek | 22 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +1.1 |
| James Bell | 18 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +3.5 |
| Isaiah Armwood | 13 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -18.8 |
| Russell Wooten | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.2 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Hansbrough * | 39 | 8-12 | 7-10 | 7-7 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 30 | +20.8 |
| Tim Abromaitis * | 37 | 10-17 | 9-13 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 19 | +17.5 |
| Tyrone Nash * | 32 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 20 | +12.9 |
| Carleton Scott * | 30 | 4-12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 9 | +33.0 |
| Scott Martin * | 28 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +14.6 |
| Eric Atkins | 19 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -9.3 |
| Jack Cooley | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | +7.9 |
| Alex Dragicevich | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2.3 |
| Joey Brooks | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Tom Kopko | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2.3 |
| Tom Knight | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2.3 |
* = starter