Model Predictions
| Model | Maryland Terrapins | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.7% | 79.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.1% | 64.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 40.0% | 60.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.4% | 49.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.8% | 49.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +11 (87-76). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Maryland Terrapins
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dino Gregory * | 33 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Terrell Stoglin * | 32 | 11-20 | 0-3 | 6-7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 12 | - |
| Jordan Williams * | 31 | 8-16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 23 | - |
| Sean Mosley * | 27 | 3-10 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Cliff Tucker * | 23 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | - |
| Adrian Bowie | 23 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Pe'Shon Howard | 15 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| James Padgett | 11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Haukur Palsson | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Berend Weijs | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Marshall * | 36 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 16 | - |
| John Henson * | 31 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 22 | - |
| Tyler Zeller * | 30 | 10-16 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 17 | - |
| Dexter Strickland * | 29 | 0-6 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | - |
| Harrison Barnes * | 27 | 9-23 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 5 | - |
| Leslie McDonald | 20 | 6-10 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Justin Knox | 12 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Justin Watts | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Reggie Bullock Jr. | 7 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | - |
* = starter