Model Predictions
| Model | UIC Flames | Valparaiso Beacons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 3.5% | 96.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 13.4% | 86.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 20.4% | 79.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 25.4% | 74.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 7.6% | 92.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 7.6% | 92.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 20.2% | 79.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Valparaiso Beacons +14 (79-65). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
UIC Flames
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robo Kreps * | 39 | 8-18 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 12 | -6.1 |
| Paul Carter * | 37 | 8-15 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 15 | -5.7 |
| Paris Carter * | 32 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Brad Birton * | 27 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | -1.8 |
| Corey Gray * | 20 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | -1.6 |
| Dipanjot Singh | 24 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -3.4 |
| Dorian Tyler | 13 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | -3.9 |
| K.C. Robbins | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -2.9 |
| Darrin Williams | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -2.5 |
| Shawn King | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jimmy Harding | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Valparaiso Beacons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howard Little * | 31 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 | +5.8 |
| Cory Johnson * | 29 | 8-13 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 14 | -0.2 |
| Brandon Wood * | 29 | 5-13 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 5 | +1.6 |
| Erik Buggs * | 26 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2-5 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -0.2 |
| Michael Rogers * | 8 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Ryan Broekhoff | 30 | 4-10 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 11 | +6.3 |
| Matt Kenney | 18 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +3.4 |
| Jay Harris | 16 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +5.1 |
| Kevin Van Wijk | 7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3.5 |
| Hrvoje Vucic | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Cameron Witt | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Nick Shelton | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter