Model Predictions
| Model | Portland Pilots | Saint Mary's Gaels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.2% | 77.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.4% | 67.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 26.5% | 73.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 19.2% | 80.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.9% | 81.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.0% | 73.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Saint Mary's Gaels +14 (83-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Portland Pilots
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Stohl * | 32 | 6-12 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 7 | - |
| Nemanja Mitrovic * | 29 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 1 | - |
| Luke Sikma * | 23 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 17 | - |
| Eric Waterford * | 22 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Jasonn Hannibal * | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Kramer Knutson | 23 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Tanner Riley | 20 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Ryan Nicholas | 19 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Derrick Rodgers | 18 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | - |
| Riley Barker | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
Saint Mary's Gaels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Dellavedova * | 37 | 4-10 | 2-4 | 11-12 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 18 | - |
| Rob Jones * | 33 | 4-13 | 1-4 | 4-6 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 15 | - |
| Mickey McConnell * | 30 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 6-6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 13 | - |
| Clint Steindl * | 19 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Tim Williams * | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Stephen Holt | 34 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 16 | - |
| Mitchell Young | 28 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Kenton Walker II | 15 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Phil Benson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Tim Harris | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter