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Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 71
@
Northern Colorado Bears 72
2011-02-26

Model Predictions

Model Northern Arizona Lumberjacks Northern Colorado Bears Spread Result
Elo 30.7% 69.3% - ✓
Bradley-Terry 42.1% 57.9% - ✓
Margin 38.4% 61.6% - ✓
Pythagorean 49.1% 50.9% - ✓
Adjusted Efficiency 41.2% 58.8% - ✓
Log Adjusted 41.1% 58.9% - ✓
Points Off/Def 39.1% 60.9% - ✓

Actual: Northern Colorado Bears +1 (72-71). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.

RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Nums RAPM GS
Cameron Jones * 37 10-23 2-7 2-2 7 1 0 0 4 24 5 +5.7
Gabe Rogers * 34 10-16 5-10 2-2 4 2 1 0 4 27 14 -2.2
Shane Johannsen * 33 1-2 0-0 4-6 9 2 0 1 1 6 15 +11.6
Stallon Saldivar * 29 0-3 0-1 2-2 6 5 0 0 2 2 8 -7.6
Durrell Norman * 22 0-2 0-0 0-0 7 2 0 0 1 0 6 +3.2
Eric Platt 20 4-5 2-3 0-0 3 0 0 1 4 10 5 -5.1
Julian Olubuyi 12 1-1 0-0 0-0 1 4 0 0 3 2 3 +7.1
Austin Smith 5 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 -9.8
DeAngelo Jones 4 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.3
Josh Lepley 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.8
Michael Dunn 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

Northern Colorado Bears

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Nums RAPM GS
Devon Beitzel * 38 6-19 3-9 8-11 4 0 2 0 1 23 9 -0.2
Taylor Montgomery * 33 2-6 0-0 2-6 5 1 0 1 2 6 5 +0.0
Elliott Lloyd * 32 1-6 1-5 1-2 0 3 1 0 2 4 0 -2.1
Neal Kingman * 31 6-14 3-7 2-2 4 2 1 0 1 17 9 -3.9
Chris Kaba * 26 4-6 2-3 2-2 6 4 2 0 0 12 18 -4.7
Paul Garnica 14 3-4 0-1 2-2 3 2 2 0 2 8 9 +2.5
Mike Proctor 13 1-2 0-0 0-0 3 0 0 0 1 2 2 -0.1
Tate Unruh 7 0-1 0-1 0-0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 +3.6
Emmanuel Addo 6 0-4 0-0 0-0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 +0.9

* = starter