Model Predictions
| Model | The Citadel Bulldogs | App State Mountaineers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.9% | 81.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.1% | 70.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.6% | 67.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 36.9% | 63.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 26.5% | 73.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 26.3% | 73.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.1% | 66.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: App State Mountaineers +11 (70-59). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
The Citadel Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Wells * | 38 | 9-13 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 17 | - |
| Mike Groselle * | 37 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Austin Dahn * | 33 | 3-7 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Zach Urbanus * | 33 | 2-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Bo Holston * | 20 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Bryan Streeter | 18 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 4-6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| DeVontae Wright | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Cosmo Morabbi | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Daniel Eykyn | 5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
| John Reynolds | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Matt Clark | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Phillip Pandak | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
App State Mountaineers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Sims * | 40 | 3-14 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Omar Carter * | 35 | 10-15 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 17 | - |
| Andre Williamson * | 24 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Nathan Healy * | 20 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
| J.R. Archer * | 9 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Anthony Breeze | 20 | 6-7 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Marcus Wright | 20 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Petey Hausley | 17 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Anthony Thomas | 15 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | - |
* = starter