Model Predictions
| Model | Colorado State Rams | Air Force Falcons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 61.1% | 38.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 65.2% | 34.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 59.0% | 41.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 77.9% | 22.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 78.1% | 21.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Air Force Falcons +17 (74-57). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Colorado State Rams
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Ogide * | 30 | 9-13 | 1-1 | 8-10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 22 | -3.4 |
| Dorian Green * | 30 | 0-7 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -5 | -14.1 |
| Adam Nigon * | 26 | 2-12 | 2-10 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 4 | +5.6 |
| Greg Smith * | 24 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -4.2 |
| Travis Franklin * | 20 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | -20.1 |
| Pierce Hornung | 24 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | -8.2 |
| Wes Eikmeier | 22 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -3 | -10.3 |
| Andre McFarland | 8 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | -0.8 |
| Jesse Carr | 8 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | -3.5 |
| Dwight Smith | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2.4 |
| Kaipo Sabas | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Will Bell | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2.9 |
Air Force Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Fletcher * | 37 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +13.3 |
| Michael Lyons * | 36 | 6-8 | 2-3 | 7-8 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 16 | +17.0 |
| Evan Washington * | 35 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | +9.0 |
| Tom Fow * | 20 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 6-6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 16 | +9.2 |
| Taylor Broekhuis * | 16 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +2.7 |
| Derek Brooks | 27 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 4-6 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 14 | +7.2 |
| Zach Bohannon | 16 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +5.4 |
| Mike Fitzgerald | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.5 |
| Taylor Stewart | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Adam Brakeville | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Kyle Green | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +0.1 |
| Shawn Hempsey | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +0.1 |
* = starter