Model Predictions
| Model | UTSA Roadrunners | Texas State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.9% | 64.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.2% | 48.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.1% | 55.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 49.0% | 51.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.4% | 49.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.4% | 49.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.2% | 56.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Texas State Bobcats +2 (82-80). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
UTSA Roadrunners
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Gibson * | 36 | 7-12 | 1-4 | 3-5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 17 | -13.9 |
| Larry Wilkins * | 33 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 4-9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 19 | -6.8 |
| Jeromie Hill * | 32 | 6-13 | 1-4 | 3-7 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 10 | -19.5 |
| Melvin Johnson III * | 30 | 7-14 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 9 | +0.7 |
| Stephen Franklin * | 28 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | -7.2 |
| Sei Paye | 24 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -13.2 |
| Jordan Sims | 10 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +11.0 |
| T.J. Williams | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2.3 |
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan White * | 36 | 6-14 | 4-9 | 9-11 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 16 | +9.8 |
| Tony Bishop * | 35 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 22 | +11.4 |
| Cameron Johnson * | 30 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +8.7 |
| Travis Jones * | 28 | 5-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | -0.2 |
| John Bowman * | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -7.3 |
| Eddie Rios | 24 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +10.6 |
| Brooks Ybarra | 14 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +14.5 |
| J.B. Conley | 10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -9.0 |
| Matt Staff | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Uriel Segura | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Reid Koenen | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +2.0 |
* = starter