Model Predictions
| Model | American University Eagles | Lafayette Leopards | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 55.6% | 44.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 76.1% | 23.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 61.7% | 38.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 73.9% | 26.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 74.0% | 26.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 52.9% | 47.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Lafayette Leopards -3 (92-95). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
American University Eagles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brewer * | 48 | 9-13 | 5-9 | 5-5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 24 | - |
| Vlad Moldoveanu * | 45 | 10-21 | 2-6 | 8-10 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 17 | - |
| Nick Hendra * | 44 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Steve Luptak * | 30 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Stephen Lumpkins * | 30 | 8-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 10 | - |
| Daniel Munoz | 21 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Tony Wroblicky | 12 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Simon McCormack | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Daniel Fisher | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Charles Hinkle | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Lafayette Leopards
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Mower * | 45 | 5-13 | 3-9 | 4-5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 10 | - |
| Jared Mintz * | 45 | 8-16 | 0-0 | 10-12 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 22 | - |
| Tony Johnson * | 42 | 9-13 | 2-4 | 9-10 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 25 | - |
| Darion Benbow * | 19 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | - |
| Ben Wheeler * | 16 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Ryan Willen | 34 | 5-9 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Rob Delaney | 30 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Nick Petkovich | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Levi Giese | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Les Smith | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter