Model Predictions
| Model | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | Long Beach State Beach | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 27.1% | 72.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 51.5% | 48.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 40.6% | 59.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 40.6% | 59.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.6% | 63.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Long Beach State Beach +18 (71-53). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Johnson * | 30 | 7-18 | 1-5 | 3-5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 2 | -8.2 |
| James Nunnally * | 26 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -22.4 |
| Jaime Serna * | 21 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | -2.1 |
| Justin Joyner * | 21 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -11.4 |
| Jordan Weiner * | 13 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5.3 |
| Jon Pastorek | 19 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | +2.6 |
| Troy Leaf | 19 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -1 | -7.1 |
| Kyle Boswell | 16 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | -2.7 |
| Will Brew | 14 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -4 | -0.1 |
| Greg Somogyi | 11 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | -11.8 |
| Lucas Devenny | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +0.2 |
| Christian Peterson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.9 |
Long Beach State Beach
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Robinson * | 35 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 3-7 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 24 | +15.9 |
| Casper Ware * | 35 | 5-12 | 4-9 | 12-14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 18 | +19.5 |
| Greg Plater * | 34 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 2 | +15.9 |
| Larry Anderson * | 29 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +14.4 |
| Eugene Phelps * | 25 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | +9.5 |
| Edis Dervisevic | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | +7.0 |
| Brandon Nevens | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +4.4 |
| Tristan Wilson | 8 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Kyle Richardson | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5.5 |
| Corey Jackson | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2.9 |
| Jerramy King | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.3 |
| Lin Chang | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7.3 |
| Mike Vantrimpont | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.1 |
| Sean Starkey | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.0 |
* = starter