Model Predictions
| Model | St. John's Red Storm | Villanova Wildcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 39.4% | 60.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.4% | 53.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 34.4% | 65.6% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 26.0% | 74.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 25.8% | 74.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.5% | 65.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Villanova Wildcats -13 (68-81). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
St. John's Red Storm
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Brownlee * | 39 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 | +23.4 |
| Dwight Hardy * | 37 | 9-16 | 5-9 | 11-13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 19 | +22.9 |
| Paris Horne * | 34 | 4-10 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +36.1 |
| D.J. Kennedy * | 31 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 22 | +29.5 |
| Dwayne Polee II * | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +9.9 |
| Justin Burrell | 19 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +8.6 |
| Sean Evans | 19 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | +4.7 |
| Malik Boothe | 13 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | -7.5 |
| Dele Coker | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Villanova Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maalik Wayns * | 36 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 9-11 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 16 | -18.4 |
| Corey Stokes * | 35 | 7-11 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 13 | -13.9 |
| Antonio Pena * | 35 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -16.7 |
| Corey Fisher * | 32 | 1-10 | 0-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | -30.7 |
| Mouphtaou Yarou * | 23 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -10.4 |
| Dominic Cheek | 23 | 4-9 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 1 | -6.0 |
| Isaiah Armwood | 14 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1.6 |
| James Bell | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1.1 |
* = starter