Model Predictions
| Model | Siena Saints | Fairfield Stags | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.1% | 85.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 27.1% | 72.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.6% | 67.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 39.0% | 61.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 23.0% | 77.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.0% | 77.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.4% | 69.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Fairfield Stags +13 (68-55). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Siena Saints
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Rossiter * | 38 | 7-17 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 16 | -4.6 |
| Rakeem Brookins * | 33 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 4 | -8.4 |
| Clarence Jackson * | 32 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -6 | -11.3 |
| Owen Wignot * | 29 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | +7.0 |
| O.D. Anosike * | 26 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 3-8 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 14 | -2.0 |
| Jonathan Breeden | 15 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -0.4 |
| Trenity Burdine | 12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -13.2 |
| Davis Martens | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -9.4 |
| Kyle Griffin | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.0 |
| Brandon Walters | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -0.8 |
Fairfield Stags
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Barrow * | 36 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 16 | +7.8 |
| Yorel Hawkins * | 35 | 6-16 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +3.9 |
| Derek Needham * | 33 | 3-13 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -1 | +9.6 |
| Colin Nickerson * | 26 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | +11.9 |
| Ryan Olander * | 19 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | +6.4 |
| Lyndon Jordan | 15 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | -0.5 |
| Keith Matthews | 14 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | -0.6 |
| Warren Edney | 14 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | +4.0 |
| Jamel Fields | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4.0 |
| Kristian Petric | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Gary Martin | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
* = starter