Model Predictions
| Model | Liberty Flames | Winthrop Eagles | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 60.1% | 39.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 42.1% | 57.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.9% | 48.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Winthrop Eagles +5 (61-56). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Liberty Flames
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Gordon * | 37 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | -0.3 |
| Jesse Sanders * | 35 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 8-11 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 14 | - |
| John Brown * | 30 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11 | -4.7 |
| David Minaya * | 23 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -8 | -3.0 |
| Joel Vander Pol * | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Antwan Burrus | 25 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -0.8 |
| Sommy Ogukwe | 15 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | +4.7 |
| John-Caleb Sanders | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +4.7 |
| Jeremy Anderson | 9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Chene Phillips | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | +0.1 |
Winthrop Eagles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Corbin * | 36 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | -0.3 |
| Robbie Dreher * | 33 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 6-10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4.9 |
| Andre Jones * | 30 | 3-10 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | -1.7 |
| Reggie Middleton * | 28 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +4.6 |
| George Valentine * | 27 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Matt Morgan | 18 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 10 | -0.6 |
| Justin Burton | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -5.0 |
| Joab Jerome | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -4.8 |
| Gideon Gamble | 8 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | +1.7 |
* = starter