Model Predictions
| Model | Gonzaga Bulldogs | Saint Mary's Gaels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.3% | 65.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.6% | 61.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 37.5% | 62.5% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.2% | 62.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Saint Mary's Gaels -4 (85-89). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Gray * | 42 | 3-11 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 13 | +5.1 |
| Marquise Carter * | 39 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | +1.8 |
| Elias Harris * | 38 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 8-11 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 15 | +10.1 |
| Robert Sacre * | 27 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 12 | -4.8 |
| Demetri Goodson * | 23 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +5.7 |
| David Stockton | 28 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | +2.3 |
| Sam Dower | 22 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 7-7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 15 | +12.1 |
| Kelly Olynyk | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1.0 |
| Mike Hart | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4.0 |
Saint Mary's Gaels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mickey McConnell * | 45 | 5-12 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 15 | +3.2 |
| Matthew Dellavedova * | 43 | 6-12 | 3-8 | 9-9 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 17 | +3.9 |
| Rob Jones * | 39 | 8-14 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 12 | -6.9 |
| Clint Steindl * | 20 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | -3.6 |
| Tim Williams * | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Stephen Holt | 28 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4.2 |
| Kenton Walker II | 23 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | -9.8 |
| Mitchell Young | 20 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +10.2 |
| Phil Benson | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1.7 |
* = starter