Model Predictions
| Model | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | Cal State Northridge Matadors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 56.8% | 43.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 68.9% | 31.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 60.3% | 39.7% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 64.5% | 35.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 84.7% | 15.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 84.8% | 15.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cal State Northridge Matadors +8 (68-60). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Johnson | 34 | 4-14 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | -2.3 |
| James Nunnally | 33 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 5-7 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 | -15.0 |
| Justin Joyner | 31 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -1.0 |
| Jaime Serna | 24 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12 | -2.4 |
| Jordan Weiner | 22 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -10.0 |
| Jon Pastorek | 16 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | -5.4 |
| Troy Leaf | 13 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 5 | +0.0 |
| Will Brew | 9 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -7.2 |
| Greg Somogyi | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +3.8 |
| Lucas Devenny | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Kyle Boswell | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.5 |
| Christian Peterson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +0.0 |
Cal State Northridge Matadors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lenny Daniel | 36 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 11-16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 21 | +2.3 |
| Rashaun McLemore | 26 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +2.7 |
| Michael Lizarraga | 24 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | +9.0 |
| Dathan Lyles | 21 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | +4.9 |
| Raymond Cody | 20 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 7-8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 16 | +15.5 |
| Aqeel Quinn | 19 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Josh Greene | 19 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Vinnie McGhee | 14 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -0.7 |
| Thomas Jacobs | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | +8.2 |
| John Hayward-Mayhew | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6.1 |
| Allen Jiles IV | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Jordan Mitchell | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter