Model Predictions
| Model | Belmont Bruins | Mercer Bears | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 77.6% | 22.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 84.5% | 15.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 78.0% | 22.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 68.7% | 31.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 96.9% | 3.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 96.9% | 3.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 78.5% | 21.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Mercer Bears -11 (64-75). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Belmont Bruins
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mick Hedgepeth | 27 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Drew Hanlen | 26 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | - |
| Jordan Campbell | 25 | 3-10 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Ian Clark | 22 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Kerron Johnson | 19 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 4-5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | - |
| J.J. Mann | 16 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | - |
| Jon House | 15 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Blake Jenkins | 14 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Scott Saunders | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Trevor Noack | 11 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Brandon Baker | 9 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Adam Barnes | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Mercer Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Langston Hall | 33 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Brian Mills | 31 | 5-14 | 0-2 | 5-7 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Bud Thomas | 29 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Mark Hall | 25 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Jakob Gollon | 20 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Justin Cecil | 19 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Chris Smith | 16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Monty Brown | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Kevin Canevari | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Paul Larsen | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Daniel Coursey | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| R.J. Miskimon | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Ted Price | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter