Model Predictions
| Model | Portland Pilots | San Diego Toreros | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 81.2% | 18.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 87.9% | 12.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 72.0% | 28.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 82.7% | 17.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 96.3% | 3.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 96.4% | 3.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 71.1% | 28.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Diego Toreros -4 (61-65). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Portland Pilots
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nemanja Mitrovic | 37 | 3-10 | 1-6 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 2 | -5.8 |
| Tim Douglas | 27 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 14 | -1.8 |
| Luke Sikma | 26 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | +4.7 |
| Jared Stohl | 26 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 13 | -3.3 |
| Kramer Knutson | 22 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Ryan Nicholas | 16 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | -14.1 |
| Tanner Riley | 16 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -3.8 |
| Jasonn Hannibal | 13 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -2.8 |
| Derrick Rodgers | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -2.1 |
| Riley Barker | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -3.5 |
| Eric Waterford | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.6 |
San Diego Toreros
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Dorr | 35 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 6 | +6.5 |
| Darian Norris | 35 | 4-10 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +2.9 |
| Devin Ginty | 32 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 4 | +7.5 |
| Chris Manresa | 28 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 | +4.5 |
| Chris Gabriel | 21 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | +0.7 |
| Cameron Miles | 16 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +6.0 |
| Ken Rancifer | 16 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +6.5 |
| Trevor Fuller | 9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Dennis Kramer | 8 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -0.4 |
* = starter