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Boise State Broncos 70
@
Fresno State Bulldogs 56
2011-02-24

Model Predictions

Model Boise State Broncos Fresno State Bulldogs Spread Result
Elo 41.1% 58.9% - ✗
Bradley-Terry 59.8% 40.2% - ✓
Margin 51.8% 48.2% - ✓
Pythagorean 57.6% 42.4% - ✓
Adjusted Efficiency 71.1% 28.9% - ✓
Log Adjusted 71.1% 28.9% - ✓
Points Off/Def 51.5% 48.5% - ✓

Actual: Fresno State Bulldogs -14 (56-70). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.

RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.

Boise State Broncos

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Jeff Elorriaga 35 2-6 2-5 1-2 1 2 2 0 2 7 4 +15.4
La'Shard Anderson 30 11-14 4-6 7-8 4 4 3 1 3 33 28 +12.1
Paul Noonan 29 2-6 2-6 0-0 1 2 0 0 2 6 1 +11.2
Daequon Montreal 28 2-7 0-0 2-2 1 0 1 0 1 6 0 +4.3
Westly Perryman 23 3-8 1-2 2-5 2 1 2 0 0 9 6 +1.6
Robert Arnold 19 2-6 1-3 1-1 3 0 1 0 1 6 3 +3.2
Zach Moritz 17 1-3 0-0 0-1 6 0 0 0 1 2 4 +3.1
Thomas Bropleh 13 0-1 0-1 1-2 2 0 2 0 0 1 4 +11.8
Ryan Watkins 4 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +0.7
Justin Salzwedel 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3.0
Green Hill 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

Fresno State Bulldogs

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Greg Smith 31 1-3 0-0 2-2 8 3 0 1 2 4 11 -15.4
Kevin Olekaibe 30 7-15 4-8 5-6 7 0 1 0 3 23 13 -1.0
Jonathan Wills 29 1-5 0-1 2-2 5 2 2 0 3 4 5 -6.4
Garrett Johnson 27 3-8 2-7 0-0 4 2 0 0 2 8 4 -1.9
Bracken Funk 26 2-3 0-0 2-2 5 0 1 0 2 6 7 -5.2
Tyler Johnson 20 2-4 0-2 2-4 4 1 4 1 2 6 10 -14.4
Steven Shepp 20 0-5 0-3 3-4 1 1 2 0 2 3 0 -4.9
Nedeljko Golubovic 14 1-3 0-1 0-0 1 0 0 0 2 2 -2 -8.2
John Ryan 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +4.0

* = starter