Model Predictions
| Model | Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons | Southern Utah Thunderbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 63.0% | 37.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 75.2% | 24.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 57.9% | 42.1% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 67.2% | 32.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 80.3% | 19.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 80.4% | 19.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.6% | 44.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Southern Utah Thunderbirds +18 (84-66). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Plackemeier | 34 | 4-9 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | -6.7 |
| Ben Botts | 27 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | -12.1 |
| Trey McCorkle | 23 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 3 | -27.7 |
| Michael Kibiloski | 21 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | +1.4 |
| Frank Gaines | 21 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | -10.9 |
| Antwaun Boyd | 20 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -4 | -10.2 |
| Jeremy Mixon | 19 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | -17.6 |
| Jason Smeathers | 14 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -0.7 |
| John Peckinpaugh | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -3.1 |
| Oleg Kovalov | 8 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | -0.1 |
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Stevenett | 33 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 13 | +25.4 |
| Ray Jones, Jr. | 30 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 10 | +21.6 |
| Ryan Brimley | 29 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 7-7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11 | +11.7 |
| Matt Massey | 28 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 | +19.6 |
| Kyle Davis | 26 | 8-11 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 21 | +12.8 |
| Ramell Taylor | 14 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +3.7 |
| Jordan Weirick | 11 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +4.8 |
| Matt Hodgson | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -5.4 |
| Damon Heuir | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2.8 |
| Jake Nielson | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -5.9 |
| Tyson Koehler | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +0.8 |
| Brian Cameron | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.5 |
* = starter