Model Predictions
| Model | Morehead State Eagles | Murray State Racers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.3% | 49.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.4% | 46.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Murray State Racers +8 (70-62). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Morehead State Eagles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demonte Harper * | 38 | 6-17 | 4-9 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 8 | - |
| Kenneth Faried * | 37 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 21 | - |
| Terrance Hill * | 33 | 5-12 | 0-6 | 3-6 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 | - |
| Ty Proffitt * | 26 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Drew Kelly * | 21 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Lamont Austin | 23 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Sam Goodman | 22 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | - |
Murray State Racers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isacc Miles * | 34 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 14 | - |
| B.J. Jenkins * | 31 | 6-10 | 4-6 | 9-11 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 26 | - |
| Jeffery McClain * | 29 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | - |
| Ed Daniel * | 24 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Jewuan Long * | 23 | 3-7 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Isaiah Canaan | 29 | 2-9 | 2-4 | 8-9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | - |
| Ivan Aska | 17 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Donte Poole | 13 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter