Model Predictions
| Model | Penn State Nittany Lions | Northwestern Wildcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 41.2% | 58.8% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 44.2% | 55.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 55.3% | 44.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.8% | 60.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Northwestern Wildcats -14 (52-66). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Penn State Nittany Lions
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talor Battle * | 40 | 5-12 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 6 | - |
| Jeff Brooks * | 39 | 8-10 | 3-3 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 19 | - |
| Tim Frazier * | 38 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 18 | - |
| Andrew Jones * | 38 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | - |
| David Jackson * | 24 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 13 | - |
| Cammeron Woodyard | 13 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Billy Oliver | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Jermaine Marshall | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
Northwestern Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Shurna * | 40 | 2-10 | 1-6 | 5-6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Michael Thompson * | 40 | 9-16 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 12 | - |
| Luka Mirkovic * | 30 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Drew Crawford * | 25 | 5-9 | 0-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | - |
| JerShon Cobb * | 19 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Alex Marcotullio | 26 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -7 | - |
| Mike Capocci | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Davide Curletti | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter