Model Predictions
| Model | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | Sacramento State Hornets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 83.4% | 16.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 81.4% | 18.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 70.9% | 29.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 78.3% | 21.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 95.5% | 4.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 95.7% | 4.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 69.5% | 30.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Sacramento State Hornets -21 (42-63). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Jones | 37 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 28 | +10.6 |
| Gabe Rogers | 29 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 19 | +8.4 |
| Eric Platt | 27 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4.8 |
| Shane Johannsen | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 19 | +14.8 |
| Julian Olubuyi | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 13 | +11.7 |
| DeAngelo Jones | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -2.1 |
| Austin Smith | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -9.3 |
| Stallon Saldivar | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1.8 |
| Michael Dunn | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4.8 |
| Durrell Norman | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4.8 |
| Luis Flores | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Josh Lepley | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
Sacramento State Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sultan Toles-Bey | 35 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 7 | -6.5 |
| Duro Bjegovic | 32 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 16 | -1.9 |
| Heath Hoffman | 29 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | -3.5 |
| Walter Jackson | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -1.9 |
| John Dickson | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | -7.3 |
| Alpha N'Diaye | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | -7.1 |
| Jackson Carbajal | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -7.6 |
| Kendell Groom | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1.9 |
* = starter