Model Predictions
| Model | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders | UTSA Roadrunners | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 11.6% | 88.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 30.1% | 69.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 24.2% | 75.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 18.2% | 81.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.1% | 81.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.7% | 71.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UTSA Roadrunners +9 (71-62). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demond Watt * | 37 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 14 | -8.0 |
| Justin Reynolds * | 31 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 9-11 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 18 | -3.5 |
| Garland Judkins * | 23 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | -2 | -4.6 |
| Horace Bond * | 23 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -12.1 |
| Chris Hawkins-Mast * | 14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | -6.9 |
| Terence Jones | 32 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 8 | +0.4 |
| Hollis Hill | 15 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -0.9 |
| Jawan Nelson | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4.1 |
| Antonio Topps | 10 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -3.0 |
| Jaamon Echols | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +0.3 |
UTSA Roadrunners
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Gibson * | 38 | 3-9 | 2-3 | 9-13 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +6.5 |
| Stephen Franklin * | 36 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 13 | +5.2 |
| Jeromie Hill * | 28 | 6-13 | 2-4 | 1-4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 10 | +7.4 |
| Larry Wilkins * | 27 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 | +12.9 |
| Melvin Johnson III * | 19 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | -1 | -5.2 |
| Sei Paye | 30 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | +7.7 |
| T.J. Williams | 12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | -5.8 |
| Tyler Wood | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | +1.6 |
| Ryan Whitehead | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | +0.9 |
| Alex Vouyoukas | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter