Model Predictions
| Model | Rice Owls | SMU Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.6% | 75.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 42.6% | 57.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.2% | 47.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.2% | 47.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: SMU Mustangs +10 (76-66). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Rice Owls
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Frizzelle * | 44 | 6-9 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 6 | -12.3 |
| Arsalan Kazemi * | 35 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 15 | -0.6 |
| Tamir Jackson * | 32 | 6-14 | 0-3 | 10-13 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 16 | -3.3 |
| Bryan Beasley * | 27 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | -17.8 |
| Lucas Kuipers * | 19 | 5-10 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 11 | -3.7 |
| Cory Pflieger | 20 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +4.6 |
| Trey Stanton | 15 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -7.8 |
| Suleiman Braimoh | 14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -13.2 |
| Trevan Abraham | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | -9.9 |
| J.R. Reynolds | 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | -8.0 |
| David Chadwick | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Nate Schwarze | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11.5 |
SMU Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Walker * | 43 | 2-10 | 0-7 | 6-6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 2 | +18.5 |
| Papa Dia * | 41 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 8-10 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 25 | +25.8 |
| Collin Mangrum * | 36 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 4-5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 11 | +7.5 |
| Robert Nyakundi * | 33 | 7-9 | 4-6 | 8-9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 17 | +20.1 |
| Jeremiah Samarrippas * | 28 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 5-6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +14.5 |
| Justin Haynes | 18 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | +1.1 |
| Ryan Harp | 13 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -8.3 |
| Rodney Clinkscales | 9 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Aliaksei Patsevich | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter