Model Predictions
| Model | UMBC Retrievers | UAlbany Great Danes | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 13.6% | 86.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.4% | 73.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.6% | 76.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 21.2% | 78.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 11.8% | 88.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 11.5% | 88.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 22.7% | 77.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UAlbany Great Danes +16 (83-67). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
UMBC Retrievers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris De La Rosa * | 38 | 9-18 | 4-6 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 9 | - |
| Adrian Satchell * | 26 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Brian Neller * | 20 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | - |
| Justin Fry * | 19 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Bakari Smith * | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Jamar Wertz | 32 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Chase Plummer | 25 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Travis King | 24 | 1-7 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Laurence Jolicoeur | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Matt Conway | 3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Jake Wasco | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
UAlbany Great Danes
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Ambrose * | 35 | 6-16 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 15 | - |
| Mike Black * | 29 | 6-6 | 3-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 18 | - |
| Blake Metcalf * | 28 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Logan Aronhalt * | 27 | 6-10 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 14 | - |
| Billy Allen * | 14 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Luke Devlin | 27 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Ralph Watts | 19 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | - |
| John Puk | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Jacob Iati | 7 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Derrek Tartt | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jake Lindfors | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter