Model Predictions
| Model | Auburn Tigers | Alabama Crimson Tide | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 6.0% | 94.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 18.0% | 82.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 14.9% | 85.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 26.9% | 73.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 2.8% | 97.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 2.7% | 97.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 14.5% | 85.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Alabama Crimson Tide +2 (51-49). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Auburn Tigers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Payne * | 32 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 2 | +18.9 |
| Josh Wallace * | 28 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -1 | +11.0 |
| Earnest Ross * | 27 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | +23.3 |
| Kenny Gabriel * | 26 | 3-10 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 | +25.5 |
| Adrian Forbes * | 24 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | +25.6 |
| Tony Neysmith | 18 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -3.6 |
| Chris Denson | 16 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2.6 |
| Rob Chubb | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4.5 |
| Josh Langford | 12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -5.0 |
| Ty Armstrong | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4.8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JaMychal Green * | 37 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 9-14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 15 | -6.6 |
| Trevor Releford * | 33 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -16.4 |
| Tony Mitchell * | 32 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 6-8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | -19.7 |
| Chris Hines * | 22 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 | -12.5 |
| Charvez Davis * | 21 | 0-7 | 0-5 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | -0.8 |
| Andrew Steele | 28 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 3-7 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | -8.8 |
| Senario Hillman | 12 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -16.1 |
| Charles Hankerson Jr. | 8 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +3.8 |
| Ben Eblen | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +0.2 |
* = starter