Model Predictions
| Model | Army Black Knights | Lafayette Leopards | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 23.6% | 76.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 52.9% | 47.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.4% | 59.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Lafayette Leopards +21 (67-46). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Army Black Knights
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Herbeck * | 33 | 5-11 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +6.1 |
| Andrew Stire * | 30 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | +5.5 |
| Ella Ellis * | 29 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 4-6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | -2.3 |
| Alex Godette * | 24 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Chris Welker * | 13 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +8.7 |
| Jeremy Hence | 31 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 12 | -7.8 |
| Jason Pancoe | 17 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -9.7 |
| Julian Simmons | 8 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -8.9 |
| Jordan Springer | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
| C.J. McElrath | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.3 |
| Brian Hornstein | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -8.6 |
| Cartavious Kincade | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
Lafayette Leopards
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Mintz * | 34 | 1-8 | 0-1 | 5-9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +8.3 |
| Tony Johnson * | 34 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 13 | +2.6 |
| Jim Mower * | 30 | 9-16 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 7 | +5.3 |
| Rob Delaney * | 22 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -6.4 |
| Darion Benbow * | 16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -2.9 |
| Ryan Willen | 24 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +3.6 |
| Nick Petkovich | 16 | 2-7 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Les Smith | 15 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | +0.8 |
| J.D. Pelham | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1.8 |
| Jack Detmer | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -0.1 |
| Ben Wheeler | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +1.4 |
* = starter