Model Predictions
| Model | UNLV Rebels | New Mexico Lobos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 62.5% | 37.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 51.1% | 48.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 67.8% | 32.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 68.1% | 31.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: New Mexico Lobos -3 (74-77). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
UNLV Rebels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar Bellfield * | 44 | 5-16 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +9.7 |
| Tre'Von Willis * | 40 | 9-13 | 5-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 17 | +9.9 |
| Anthony Marshall * | 36 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | +10.6 |
| Quintrell Thomas * | 27 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 18 | +3.7 |
| Chace Stanback * | 9 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | -5.8 |
| Derrick Jasper | 32 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -1.9 |
| Brice Massamba | 20 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +0.9 |
| Justin Hawkins | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -10.0 |
| Carlos Lopez-Sosa | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1.5 |
New Mexico Lobos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dairese Gary * | 45 | 10-15 | 2-4 | 4-7 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 19 | +2.0 |
| Phillip McDonald * | 40 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 11 | +0.3 |
| Drew Gordon * | 38 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 3-8 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 | +7.4 |
| Kendall Williams * | 34 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 4-6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -0.7 |
| Tony Snell * | 25 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | -13.9 |
| A.J. Hardeman | 18 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 7-7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 7 | +18.5 |
| Jamal Fenton | 11 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Alex Kirk | 8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4.4 |
| Chad Adams | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -2.7 |
| Cameron Bairstow | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2.9 |
* = starter