Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | NC State Wolfpack | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 69.1% | 30.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 71.2% | 28.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 63.9% | 36.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 58.5% | 41.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 87.1% | 12.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 87.4% | 12.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 63.7% | 36.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: NC State Wolfpack -12 (63-75). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter Strickland * | 34 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 12 | +5.5 |
| John Henson * | 33 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 20 | +3.1 |
| Kendall Marshall * | 33 | 5-12 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 4 | +12.9 |
| Harrison Barnes * | 30 | 6-17 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +9.7 |
| Tyler Zeller * | 25 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 14 | +12.4 |
| Justin Knox | 19 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -8.9 |
| Reggie Bullock Jr. | 12 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +0.0 |
| Leslie McDonald | 12 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1.0 |
| Justin Watts | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.3 |
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Brown * | 34 | 5-11 | 0-3 | 1-3 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 13 | +2.3 |
| Tracy Smith * | 33 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | -3.7 |
| C.J. Leslie * | 32 | 6-15 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 | -10.3 |
| Ryan Harrow * | 29 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | -9.5 |
| Scott Wood * | 22 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -6.1 |
| C.J. Williams | 21 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +2.3 |
| Jordan Vandenberg | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | +6.4 |
| Javier Gonzalez | 14 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +3.9 |
* = starter