Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | NC State Wolfpack | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 64.6% | 35.4% | -3.3 | ✓ (8.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 78.3% | 21.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 93.4% | 6.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 92.9% | 7.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 92.9% | 7.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: NC State Wolfpack -12 (63-75). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Strickland * | 34 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 12 | - |
| J. Henson * | 33 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 20 | - |
| K. Marshall * | 33 | 5-12 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 4 | - |
| H. Barnes * | 30 | 6-17 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | - |
| T. Zeller * | 25 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 14 | - |
| J. Knox | 19 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| R. Bullock Jr. | 12 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
| L. McDonald | 12 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | - |
| J. Watts | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Brown * | 34 | 5-11 | 0-3 | 1-3 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 13 | - |
| T. Smith * | 33 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | - |
| C.J. Leslie * | 32 | 6-15 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 | - |
| R. Harrow * | 29 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| S. Wood * | 22 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| C.J. Williams | 21 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | - |
| J. Vandenberg | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| J. Gonzalez | 14 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
* = starter