Model Predictions
| Model | Wisconsin Badgers | Michigan Wolverines | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 69.0% | 31.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 68.9% | 31.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 61.2% | 38.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 58.4% | 41.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 85.6% | 14.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 85.7% | 14.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.3% | 39.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Michigan Wolverines -1 (52-53). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Wisconsin Badgers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Taylor * | 38 | 8-19 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 10 | -0.2 |
| Jon Leuer * | 37 | 5-14 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 13 | -0.2 |
| Josh Gasser * | 36 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -0.2 |
| Keaton Nankivil * | 35 | 5-11 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 9 | -0.2 |
| Tim Jarmusz * | 24 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -0.3 |
| Ryan Evans | 9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Brett Valentyn | 8 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Mike Bruesewitz | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Rob Wilson | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Wquinton Smith | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Michigan Wolverines
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Morris * | 39 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. * | 38 | 6-13 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 7 | +0.3 |
| Zack Novak * | 35 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Jordan Morgan * | 32 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 10 | +0.3 |
| Stu Douglass * | 26 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +0.3 |
| Matt Vogrich | 14 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | +0.3 |
| Evan Smotrycz | 11 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | +0.3 |
| Eso Akunne | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jon Horford | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter